Investment opportunities in molybdenum companies

At present time, there are less than a full handful of primary molybdenum producers. The majority of molybdenum production comes as a byproduct of copper mining. A year ago, we forecast the rise of primary molybdenum producers. Shares in companies we began covering a year ago, such as Thompson Creek and expectant producer Roca Mines, have appreciated exponentially.

How much upside is left? This depends more upon the price of molybdenum than any other factors. A year ago, moly companies were kneeling in their prayer boxes, hoping molybdenum would not sink into the teens. Back then, we argued it would go in the opposite direction. Industry forecasts were less sanguine and suggested we were mistaken.

About eleven months ago, we talked with Michael Magyar, the USGS molybdenum commodity specialist about pricing of the metal. He explained, "The molybdenum market usually needs about 10 to 12 weeks of inventory for its comfort level." That comes to about 60 to 80 million pounds. "The amount of moly floating around right now, in the hands of producers and traders, might be about 10 million pounds." About two weeks of production.

In November 2006, Magyar told us, "There is not enough excess to rebuild inventories." Clearly, the moly supply climate got tighter since we began coverage on this space.

In the May 2007 Monthly Stainless Steel Report prepared by Damstahl®, the company forecast that molybdenum ore supply is expected to increase by only 12 percent to 460 million pounds by 2009. The Danish stainless steel manufacturer wrote, "The market will remain tight for some time." This compares with a statement one trader made to American Metal Market magazine in late May, "The demand is there but the supply isn't."

On May 29th, the supply got tighter. The recently IPO'ed Sprott Molybdenum Participation Fund announced the purchase of 600,000 pounds of molybdenum. Eric Sprott, who has been promoting his moly fund in the media, has reached legendary status among Canadians for his prescient investing in the uranium sector three years ago. For example, one of Sprott's favorite uranium companies, Energy Metals Corp, announced on Monday it would be acquired by Uranium One at more than 1000 percent from the level where the fund manager began acquiring the company's shares.

We believe Sprott will repeat his success in the molybdenum market.

This past week, Sprott told Canada's Business Television, "Our view is that moly, which at one time touched $40, could have a very good chance of going back there again." He believes inventories have been depleted and that demand has already exceeded supply.

One of the molybdenum companies in which Sprott has invested is Roca Mines. We talked with Scott Broughton, chief executive of this company. He agreed with Sprott, "Current demand for concentrates is clearly outpacing supply."

Broughton knows this because his company will be mining and milling at the MAX molybdenum deposit in British Columbia this summer. "We have gotten significant, recent interest from Asian and North American buyers," he told StockInterview. "Those buyers are both end-users and metals brokers desperately seeking off-take, despite the fact that Roca Mines already committed its production for 2007."

Some are not surprised at the molybdenum price's strong rally over the past year. Adanac Molybdenum Corp's executive vice chairman Larry Reaugh told us, "I've been watching the moly story unfold since our exploration days in the mid 1990s. The usual market demand will be further upwardly affected through new usage created by environment, energy and water requirements in emerging economies in Asia, South America and the Middle East."

Reaugh, who follows the sector like a hawk, believes the molybdenum price will eclipse the previous 2005 highs, as early as this summer. (Top-rated fund manager Otto Spork, mentioned earlier in this article, has molybdenum exposure through his fund's investments in Adanac.)

Pioneering moly commentator Ken Reser is overjoyed with recent developments in the market place, but insists, "Moly prices have a fair ways to climb yet as more new uses and realities of molybdenum demand present themselves." Reser, who also serves as a research consultant to Adanac, believes molybdenum could become front page news soon, as we have found in the uranium mining market.

But Reser warns, "Many investors are going to be burned by the rainbow chasers and fly-by-nights." We agree because we've seen the number of uranium 'mining' companies grow from 30 to more than 400, since we began covering this space. Most lack the technical expertise or deposits required to commence mining operations.

Nonetheless, we anticipate this growing interest in molybdenum mining companies will continue to attract herds of investors. In a recent article, we prepared a 'ratings checklist' for investors to utilize when evaluating the smaller, and possibly prospective, molybdenum juniors. As a reference case, we reviewed United Bolero, which met our coverage criteria. For other possibilities, one can review StockInterview's Molybdenum HQ.